All to play for in relegation battle’s two horse race – here’s why | West Ham News

Following Spurs 1-1 draw with Leeds United, despite West Ham losing their last two games, the relegation battle has now distilled down to one plain, brutal fact: It is either Tottenham Hotspur or West Ham United who’ll face the drop in two weeks time.

Tottenham’s season‑saving surge began with a 2-2 draw against Brighton, a 1- 0 away victory at Wolves followed by a 2–1 win away at Aston Villa. But while they continued their unbeaten run under Roberto De Zerbi, a point against Leeds United means they are still ‘only’ two points clear of West Ham with two games left.

The stats are still vastly stacked against the Hammers with Tottenham’s latest relegation odds at most bookies being 10/3 to go down implying a 23.1% chance, and the Opta supercomputer suggesting a 19.3% relegation probability. Whereas West Ham are favourites at 1/7 to go down with an 87.5% implied probability.

Opta supercomputer supports this with a 80%+ chance of relegation.

West Ham’s previous two games can only be described as catastrophic. First came a 3–0 defeat to Brentford, a result that sent our relegation odds spiralling, and removed the two point cushion we had over our North London rivals. This was followed by Sundays 1-0 loss to Arsenal, sealed by a stoppage‑time equaliser that VAR ruled out.

Spurs have a superior goal difference, -9 to West Ham’s -20. The 11‑goal swing means that if the clubs finish level on points, West Ham are almost certain to go down.

With regards to the remaining two games, Tottenham visit Stamford Bridge for a London derby against Chelsea, followed by a home game against Everton. West Ham travel to St James’ Park to play Newcastle United, ending the season at the London stadium versus Leeds United.

Spurs game against Chelsea will be played two days after West Ham’s visit to Tyne & Wear, meaning they will have four days rest before the season finale. This would be their third game after West Ham’s, which could seen as a psychological advantage, yet is a consequence of European and cup games.

Bookmakers and Opta modelling imply:

Spurs have roughly a 40–50% chance of winning at least one of their remaining games (inferred from match odds and relegation pricing). West Ham sit closer to 25–35%, reflecting tougher fixtures and form (inferred from relegation odds and fixture difficulty).

Based on form, injuries, Opta projections, and bookmaker sentiment, here’s my thoughts, though for West Ham I truly hope they prove me wrong!

Chelsea v Tottenham

Predicted Score: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham

Spurs’ away form remains fragile, and Chelsea’s physicality could expose them.

Tottenham v Everton

Predicted Score: Tottenham 2-1 Everton

A must‑win, and the Spurs’ home crowd may drag them over the line.

Newcastle Utd  v West Ham

Predicted Score: Newcastle 2-1 West Ham

Newcastle’s inconsistency gives West Ham hope, but not enough – though we did win there last season.

West Ham v Leeds Utd

Predicted Score: West Ham 1-1 Leeds Utd

Leeds are already safe but remain stubborn away from home. They also have a good record at West Ham.

All indicators ,Opta modelling, bookmaker odds, form, and fixtures annoyingly point in one direction:

Tottenham stay up. West Ham go down.

Football though is decided on the pitch, and as a former Tottenham and West Ham player, Jimmy Greaves often said “It’s a Funny Old Game!” – and I hope he’s right!

Here’s the thing: Nobody gave the Hammers a hope of pulling off their improbable away win at St James’s Park in November 2024. The Irons won 2-0 to confound bookies, pundits and even their own fans as Julen Lopetegui eased the pressure on his job- if only temporarily.

Ask yourself, who has more to play for?

COYI!