Match preview & betting tips
(All tips at foot of article if wish to skip the reasoning)
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For Every Villain, there’s a hero
And that hero will hopefully be Sebastian Haller. So far this season our £45m man has hit the target twice per game, on average, which is an impressive number. He was ranked one of the best for shot accuracy in the Bundesliga and has continued the feat in the Premier League, for context, that is more than Sterling, Aguero, Kane, Mane, Salah….in fact, there are only 2 players with a better figure and they are Son and Pukki. It is just 1/3 for him to hit the target again but is 6/4 for Haller to have 2+ shots on target. Aston Villa concede 19.3 shots per game, a league high. The Frenchman is best priced at 13/8 to score anytime.
Mike Dean means cards
Dean is the referee at Villa Park and while many roll their eyes, mine light up as it means cards. He was the 2nd highest for yellow cards last season and is already averaging 3.5 per game, so, who is the man to be on? Its is easier to bet in play for this market but I do like to go through the numbers prior, here are my candidates…..
John McGinn – 4.3 tackles per game, against Lanzini, 14 cards last season (5/2)
Frederick Guilbert – 2 cards in 2 games, 2 fouls per game, against Anderson & Masuaku (10/3)
Mark Noble – against Grealish, 3 tackles & 1.5 fouls per game (5/2)
Sebastian Haller – My outsider. Should have been booked against Norwich City and puts himself about, was booked 3 times last season, 2.7 tackles and 1.7 fouls per game, only Fredericks and Balbuena average more fouls per game (8/1)
Note: In play is definatly the way to go for bookings & you have to wait for line ups before these bets to make sure they start as do the opponents you are factoring in. Noble & McGinn to be carded 10/1
Hammers to go third
Leicester lost, Wolves lost, Everton lost. These were tipped as our ‘best of the rest rivals’ and we have a chance to show some quality and courage tonight against Villa. A win takes us third and with Pellegrini spouting ‘big club mentality’ like Sullivan liked to chat about ‘next level’ and……whisper it quietly but I think we will do it. West Ham to win at 33/20 is a pretty good price but one that suggests the bookies see this as a tough one to call but I see us as a tough side to keep out. My only concern is what Pelle will do for ‘Plan B’ with Antonio out injured but with Ajeti, Wilshere and one of Fornals or Lanzini (if is suffering from his late arrival) on the bench, he has options. 3 points and go 3rd? Hopefully.
Rice is a shield
Declan came in for unwarranted critics when playing with the 3 lions on his shirt and he will respond by playing like a lion with the hammers on his shirt this evening. Stats wise, he completed 2 tackles v Kosovo and 4 v Bulgaria. This season he has averaged 3.5 tackles per game for The Irons and I expect him to continue these numbers, Rice is 4/6 to complete 3 or more tackles and one for those accumulators. I will certainly be including it in mine, which I will post on my twitter account prior to the game.
Declan Rice tackles for WHU:
Man City: 4
Norwich City: 5
Watford: 4
Brighton: 1
Betway Charity Bet
Every week, we do a charity bet with our shirt sponsors, I chuck them a few outcomes for the game, they price it up and they also put a virtual £50 stake on, if it wins, the profit goes to charity and they match the balance in May. This week I have gone with: West Ham to score 2 or more, Haller to score, both team to have 3 or more corners each and 3 or more cards in the match, priced at 7/2.
The selections
- Haller to have 2+ shots on target (6/4)
- Noble & McGinn to be carded (10/1)
- West Ham United to win (33/20)
- Declan Rice 3+ tackles (4/6)
