talkSPORT’S ‘Super Computer’ has given a November Update on its predictions for the season and it really is all rather predictable,
What I do know is that no computer is any better than the info fed into it and thus, the bottom line is that the outcome is inevitably down to humans.
The idea that anybody (or thing) can accurately forecast where your club will finish fie months ahead – even by using a “a leading sports technology and data company” – seems a bit wacky to me.
How, for example does it take into account injuries – such as Payet’s – suspensions and all the rest so if I’m honest I can’t take these things seriously but for the record here’s how it’s predicting the top ten come May.
Oh and by the way a pig has just flown by my window:
10: Palace
9: West Ham
8: Everton
7.Southampton
6: Liverpool
5: Spurs
4: Chelsea ( err WHAT?)
3: Manchester United
2: Arsenal
1: Manchester City
For the purposes of predicting EPL finishes, 6 months ahead of time, and taking into all of the improbables that you mentioned (in addition to a heap of other factors, including the January transfer window, reflex mistakes made or missed by refs etc.), I am in total agreement with your comments. So why you may ask? Dearfriends, please read on…
Lets begin with a few introductory comments, if I may make…
I use computers and associated software to assist me everyday in my competitive chess play. While these super-monster programs are rated well above the best GM’s in the world, they are only as good as the geezers who write the programs. hence they can never match human intuition, visual pattern recognition, or predicting the unexpected novel moves that our humans can create.
Having worked in medical research for most of my working life, I appreciate how computers can assist and expedite the work in the laboratory environment. But no computer, from ‘Sydney to the Whopping Nick’, has been able to do the work of reading research articles and/or ability to generate novel ideas come up which are the essential minimum requirements, which might, and stress just might, to a potentially useful breakthrough 10-20 years down the line.
If superComputers, were so brilliant, as some have come to have believed, then there would be no need for a football manager & staff. Just get the playing formation you want, choose the players and associated performance statistics, and stuff them into a model of how you’d like the players to interact over the course of a 90 min game, let alone allowing for the nature of the opposition, the mood of each team individual and collective mood & spirit of a team, on any specific given day.
When I consider how our team, or any other for that matter, may ultimately finish in May, I try and take into account,, in roughly order of importance, the following factors, (which is by no means meant to be inclusive). Of course where relevant I shall try and use our West Ham team as an example.
Right at the top, look at the proven potential & intuitive ability of the manager. History has shown, that even a relatively inexperienced, but possessing potentially insightful ability, has been able to guide the most limited squad of players with modest ability onto the highest honors attainable. So lets take a look at our SuperSlaven Bilic. I am usually very wary of people who abuse the term ‘genius’ and am usually reticent to use the term myself in reference to others. However, on the basis of what he has achieved prior to his first year as our manager, and adding to that the results he has achieved after only 12 games with our team, I am at a loss to refer to him as anything less than genius level. In virtually no time, he has put together a squad of talented players, with sufficient squad depth to meet virtually any occasion. However, even ‘my self-appointed’ genius can’t prevent the debacle against Watford. However, this man has the human skills to bring out the best in each individual, encourage small group skills, and even in the most desperate of time, show his trust in the ability of his selected team to perform with such distinction. next factor- we are blessed with ‘good to great quality’ players, many of them playing well above their previous ‘pigeon-holed status, Mauro Zarate is just one example, and how fickle time is. If only our dear forgotten friend, Nene, had been given the chance that Slaven would have no doubt, given them, who knows how useful this guy may have proven?. Next come the various support staff that our manager and club have assembled- a caring, hard-working group dedicated to the cause of the team and club. then comes the fan-base and the the community spirit associated with West Ham. So do I have the’ temerity and chutzpah’ to prdict our ultimate EPL place. However, I have sufficient belief (as all of you WHU supporters out there might want to share!) to believe in a possible top 8 finish. How the daft superComputer had Chelsea in the top 4, without even accounting for the potential of Leicester City, beggars belief. Remember dear friends, that we are really part of something to very proud of!
COYI,
Maxie