With just four league games remaining for West Ham we look at the short run in for European places between the current third and seventh place in the Premier League. My personal predictions below foresee Arsenal finishing third on 73 points, Manchester City fourth on 69 points, West Ham in fifth place 66 points with a superior goal difference, Liverpool in sixth place also on 66 points but inferior goal difference, Manchester United in seventh place also on 66 points but inferior goal difference on West Ham & Liverpool.
Here is my breakdown.
Arsenal currently 3rd on 63 points with 12 points up for grabs
Sunderland v Arsenal WIN
Arsenal v Norwich WIN
Man City v Arsenal DRAW
Arsenal v Aston Villa WIN
Prediction 10 points and total of 73 points
Man City currently 4th on 61 points with 12 points up for grabs
Man City v Stoke WIN
Southampton v Man City DRAW
Man City v Arsenal DRAW
Swansea v Man City WIN
Prediction 8 points and season total of 69 points
Manchester Utd currently 5th on 59 points with 12 points up for grabs
Manchester Utd v Leicester LOSS
Norwich v Manchester United WIN
West Ham v Manchester United DRAW
Manchester Utd v Bournemouth WIN
Prediction 7 points and total of 66 points
West Ham currently 6th on 56 points with 12 points up for grabs
West Brom v West Ham WIN
West Ham v Swansea WIN
West Ham v Manchester United DRAW
Stoke v West Ham WIN
Prediction 10 points and total of 66 points
Liverpool currently 7th on 54 points with 15 points up for grabs
Liverpool v Newcastle WIN
Swansea v Liverpool WIN
Liverpool v Watford WIN
Liverpool v Chelsea LOSS
West Brom v Liverpool WIN
Prediction 12 points and total of 66 points
Tell us your predictions.
Reply to the questions asked and an idea of my own:
1) I agree with Max that Liverpool could win all 5 of their remaining games, but the weight on Europa League and the lack of quality squad depth has to be taken into account. With their last 5 Premier League games and the 2 (minimum) Europa League games, they are playing 7 games in 22 days, which is ridiculously strenuous.
2) I also agree that West Ham must win all of their remaining games to guarantee Europa League because:
If Liverpool win all 5, they go to 69 points
West Ham would go to 68 points (4 wins)
Man Utd, since one game is against West Ham, assuming they win their other 3 games, would go to 68 points too but currently have a lower goal difference than West Ham)
However, West Ham only have 4 games remaining, not 5 as Max said (probably a typo).
We just have to hop what Leicester do us a favour and beat Man Utd to keep the fight up for us
3) If Man Utd win the FA Cup, then they would get the place in Europe via the cup, so then 7th place would get the remaining Europa League spot. BUT if Man Utd did not win the cup and Liverpool were to somehow win the Europa League and not get top 6, they would automatically get Champions League next season (new rule) which means that we would have 5 teams in CL (like Spain did this year) and the FA Cup winners, 5th and 6th would all get Europa League.
So basically, even if we win all of our remaining games, we still have to depend on other results as Man Utd could overtake us on GD and if they don’t win the cup, 5th (Liverpool), 6th (Man Utd) and FA Cup winners whoever) would get Europa League and not us.
I believe we will need to beat Man Utd to overtake them in the table , can’t see us winning all four games remaining but that sticks out as a must win for me , and Man Utd haven’t slipped up lately . Exciting time to be a Hammers supporter whichever way it goes !
I can see us winning all 4 games as long as the refs don’t mind.
A well-considered prediction!
My only concerns, are that with such a good run-in, Liverpool could win all their remaining games, including the game against Chelsea.
This means that West Ham must try and win all their final 5 games, including the critical match against ManUtd.
My thoughts, based on many hours of combination/permutations are 4.Man City, 5. Liverpool, 6. West Ham & 7th. ManUtd, which is quite close to the text predictions.
My only uncertainty, is if West Ham finish 6th, but Man.Utd win the FA Cup, would we still qualify for Europa next year?