Spot on Hammers/Man U stats


Make what you like of Opta but they got the stats almost spot on at the London Stadium today writes Michael Talbot.

After=match stats mean very little at time particularly possession but prior to the game Opta gave some data which proved absolutely spot on.

Having looked at all available data including recent performances and player stats, suggested, they claimed the most likely outcome of the match would be a West Ham United victory and the probability they quoted was 51.97%.

For the match to go the other way and the Irons to be beaten by the Reds showed a probability of 25.15% and a draw  22.9%.

They got the score line wrong but only by one goal quoting a probability of a 2-1 win for the Hammers which only carried another probability of 9.7%.
The next most likely score lines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Manchester United win is 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn score line it is 1-1 (10.57%).
In terms of possession – often seen as absolutely key in these games – the Hammers had just 35 per cent and United therefore 65 per cent so that’s data which can often be thrown out of the window.

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Hugh Southon is a lifelong Iron and the founding editor of ClaretandHugh. He is a national newspaper journalist of many years experience and was Bobby Moore's 'ghost' writer during the great man's lifetime. He describes ClaretandHugh as "the Hammers daily newspaper!"

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