You’ll recall the initial predictions made during the pre-season – which were predicting West Ham United were due for a top ten performance in the Premier League but agonisingly ending outside the target of a European Place.
At that stage we were expecting that only a cup run leading to successfully capturing the Carabao or FA Cup would see us elevated back into the Europa League or Conference League (via the play-offs in the case of the Carabao Cup).
Following the first round of this seasons’ games, the clever people with their algorithms at Opta Analyst have revised all of their forecasts to take into account the results. And it’s not making good reading for the Hammers.
Not surprisingly, our first day defeat has further dented the predictions of West Ham’s premier league performance. According to the data experts West Ham will now finish thirteenth, denting any possible chance of a return to the upper parts of the Premier League, amassing only 46 points which would put us scarily close to the relegation zone but far away from Lopetegui’s target of returning to the Europa League.
According to Opta, ‘No Chance’ of Irons securing a top seven finish for euro qualification this year
So I decided to do a bit of research on the Analysis they carried out last year, in a bid to see what credibility we should give this prediction for the forthcoming season: Last year the Irons’ were predicted to finish in 11th place – and in reality we finished 9th. Winners were predicted correctly – no surprise there, my dog could have chosen Manchester City to win – Arsenal 2nd, Liverpool 3rd and Manchester United 4th (Hah!- they finished 8th).
So, whilst it may be entertaining, a useful pointer, and a great business model for Opta, I won’t lose any sleep over ‘supercomputer’ predictions. Me and the dog are both saying ‘seventh’.
Does Opta publish their findings through a media source?
Strange that a commercial business would want to make a prediction with so little data. Statisticians normally like to have a sample of at least 15%.
Supercomputer predictions are just so much froth where there’s so many variables some of them totally unpredictable.
We can field a strong team backed by a strong bench, it just depends how quickly that gels. I can readily see a time this season where we are flying but what I can’t say is how soon.
The thing that’s absolutely for certain is that our starting eleven will look considerably different to the starting eleven against Villa fairly soon.
I see Fullkrug, Wan Bissaka, Todibo, Summerville and Alvarez all in before too long.