West Ham remain in eighteenth despite three wins in four games as the teams above seemingly keep on picking up points – shades of 2002-3 when the Hammers were relegated with a record tally 42 points.
How we may come to rue those ‘easy’ Christmas games in which so many points were lost. The challenge now to overhaul Nottingham Forest – or another relegation candidate should either Spurs or Palace endure a torrid fall-off in form – looks daunting with just the 13 games remaining.
Daunting, but not impossible. From Londonworld.com this morning comes the latest workings of the Opta ‘Super Computer’ – which has carried out thousands of simulations to give Hammers fans a pretty clear picture of the points target needed to escape the drop:
“Opta’s predict table gives an average points tally from 10,000 simulations with West Ham’s average tally coming in at 36.37. Forest’s total is 41.58, meaning West Ham would need 42 points and a better goal difference to survive.
That would mean 19 points from their last 13 matches – and while it is a hard task, it is not impossible given their current form”
Which is six wins and a draw – or five wins and four draws. In case you hadn’t dared look, the next six fixtures include both Manchester sides, Liverpool away and Bournemouth plus Fulham.
Aston Villa, Wolves, Palace and Everton lie further ahead with Brentford, Arsenal, Newcastle and Leeds finishing off the season. Six wins from that lot then. Piece of cake.
It’s the hope that kills ya’ 😖 but I’m staying positive that we can pull it off
Spurs and Palace have already experienced a drop off in form, although Palace did themselves a favour today. Spurs will likely survive but will need to improve to get enough points from a difficult run-in. Forest is the team we need to overhaul but I don’t think we need 42 to do it. The good news is, Forest have Dyche, the bad news is we have Nuno.
Pray to the football gods_NO injuries_NO suspensions_NO opposition early goals.
In a season where many unfancied teams are beating teams they are expected to lose against, anything can happen. It seems to all be about form. And maybe we’re starting to hit some. It’s going to be very close but there is at least hope, which two weeks ago there didn’t seem to be
Wolves palace Brentford Newcastle Leeds Everton all winnable but think we probably lose at least one of those and then we’re hoping for draws against some of the big boys and maybe the odd upset. Would it surprise me if we lost to Wolves and beat Arsenal? No not one bit. Thus is West Ham after all.