Stats ask “Are Irons genuinely top four?”


A cracking start to the season sees the mighty Irons in Champions League berth at the moment, but will it last?

Looking at the stats we have actually over performed as we have nine goals as opposed to an xG (expected goals) of 6.9 and let in 4 rather than 6.7 xG against.

If you followed the stats blindly this would have given us just five points, half our actual total.

You could also argue that we were lucky against Chelsea and struggled for periods against Bournemouth and Luton.

But we should embrace it all as we are in fine form , decisions have gone our way and we have rediscovered how to put the ball in the net.

But statistically will it last? There’s an interesting piece attempting to give the answer at  The statistics that tell us whether West Ham are genuine top four contenders (

According to this the existing metrics say no, as we have to continue to improve.

Even though four games is an extremely small sample size , there have been some surprising features. It claims we seem to be having slightly fewer shots this term than last, but with a much better xG. That suggests we  we are creating better scoring opportunities than last season

Nevertheless, we are still from the finished article and I for one still feel very confident about the season.

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Hugh Southon is a lifelong Iron and the founding editor of ClaretandHugh. He is a national newspaper journalist of many years experience and was Bobby Moore's 'ghost' writer during the great man's lifetime. He describes ClaretandHugh as "the Hammers daily newspaper!"

Follow on Twitter @hughsouthon