I am acutely aware that it’s not the done thing to pour cold water over transfer rumours, particularly when it appears West Ham are close to signing a player.
However, I think it’s only right to call into question the Ā£40m transfer fee being demanded by Aston Villa for Jhon Duran. In this instance, I do believe that West Ham are absolutely correct in sticking to their valuation of the player and not paying over the odds for what is a talented young footballer with potential.
Because make no mistake about it, Duran is nowhere near the finished article. That’s not to say that he’s a bad player; on the contrary. There are certainly similarities in his playing style to Michail Antonio, and with all due respect to Mikey, Duran probably has a bit better technique. In fact, while we’re making West Ham player comparisons, I’d also throw a bit of Paulo Wanchope into the mix.
The Colombian striker also has an absolute thunderbolt of a shot and excellent athleticism. Nonetheless, West Ham would still be purchasing a raw player who requires an awful lot of development.
Therefore, I believe it’s incredibly important that the Hammers don’t pay over the odds for a player who has only scored five goals for Aston Villa. There are strikers available right now who are the finished article and don’t cost as much as the Midlands club is demanding for Duran.
It’s difficult to put a price on potential, which is exactly why any potential transfer deal must be structured in a way that rewards Villa if the player reaches his peak. But it’s also important for West Ham to negotiate a favourable transaction to protect themselves against overpaying for a player who may not fulfill his undoubted potential.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be delighted if West Ham can conclude the deal for a striker, and preferably the sooner, the better. And if the chosen one turns out to be Jhon Duran, then I’m all for it.
Sometimes I can become as frustrated as anyone when West Ham appears to take an eternity to conclude a transfer negotiation. However, in this instance, I do believe the club is wise to take their time and get the best deal possible.
George Earthy has untold potential, is young and has only scored 4 goals fewer than Duran in the Prem. Does this mean George is worth Ā£35-Ā£40m?
Villa fan here, Duran has all the makings of a 100m striker, he might of only scored 5 goals but in that time probably hasn’t played over 500minutes! We would like to keep him if it wasn’t for his attitude, he wants to be the main man which isn’t going to happen with Watkins here, he scores incredible long range goals which aren’t no fluke. 40m is steep but it’s his youth that is pricing that.
If you want him really cheap you’re talking 25m+ 15m in bonuses with a 40m buy back option within 5 years, probably couldn’t grumble at that.
I may be mistaken as I’m not a Villa fan but I remember watching a pre-season tour match in the US on Sky last season and he was lively, work like and an absolute pain for defenders. When he’s been given minutes as sub he’s always in the thick of it and equally as good as young CFs costing Ā£65+. Anything under Ā£40m would be a steal and I agree, he could easily double his valuation. I’m sure he’ll score 20/30+ once he’s playing regularly and with the talent around him.
Pay or don’t pay not Villa’s problem, if you go into the season with what you’ve got then you’ll be lucky to finish in the top half so I understand you need to get it right but Villa will get the money either by easy add-ons or up front. For Villa there’s no downside, he has an awkward personality and I’ve no doubt where ever he goes no matter what they’ll be friction but he gives his all on the pitch. Personally I hope Villa keep him.
At the price that Villa are wanting, the pool of young unproven strikers is quite big. Personally, given our history with strikers, no deal is better than a bad deal. Is he that good? In Colombia’s extra time Copa America final, all first XI players bar the back four got substituted and he didn’t get any minutes.
Everyone is so desperate for a striker and “young players” we’ve all gone mad. Anyone who thinks this is a good deal is off their head. Villa signed him for Ā£16m and he has failed there. 5 goals in over 30 games (one hitting him and going in, so actually 4) shows that. He shouldnt be worth the Ā£16m they paid, so Ā£40m is madness! No doubt they will have some stupid sell on clause also so we over pay, take the huge gamble, and if he comes good, dont reap all the rewards. How has his value risen yet every player we sign and fails we take a huge loss on. I just cannot understand this deal and no wonder we are the only club involved, says it all. I really hope this signing does not happen. Reports suggest you could get Toney for almost same money!! Ridiculous, all because we are obsessed with buying young (we need some players in their prime also)
Bit of a misleading stat that – all of those goals came in late cameos as a sub,
Last season he scored 5 Premier League goals in all competitions despite only starting 3 games and playing a total of 463 mintes of football – a goal every 93 minutes seems pretty phenomenal to me
I’m somewhere in the middle on this one. The figures being quoted suggest we would be overpaying based on potential. Throw in that some of his team mates have described him as a nightmare? There is definitely high risk with him but is the potential reward worth it? Apparently En-Nesyri is going for 13.5M. Doesn’t look like Lopetegui wants him? Then we’re also interested in Summerville for big money. I’m starting to wonder what’s true and have no idea what to expect this coming season. It certainly feels like revolution rather than evolution.
Any Old Irons. That goals to minutes played stat is pretty good. Problem is we need to be buying a first choice striker, whoās ready to start and complete games, not one who is some kind of āsuper subā. And there lies the issue with Duran. Is he ready to be a first choice player? Thatās the gamble. And at the price quoted itās a huge one.
As others say, there are proven strikers available for much less money, and a little more.
Thank for the post and the info. Go and buy this kid. Will be worth double in a few years.
I assume Steidten and the new recruitment team have done the data analysis which would tend to mitigate some of the risk. In the past, it was the managerās or chairmanās eye or relationships with agents that tended to drive recruitment. Data or stats along with analysis of a players attitude / temperament etc. is a lot more objective and my opinion, albeit from a few games Ive seen him appear, is that he will be more effective than Antonio has been even in his better seasons
It appears this is just round in circles, as usual
Duran looks to have one foot in the door.
Sorlock is reported to be medically fit if we want him.
Coming up on the rails is Toney available for Ā£50m (that’s never goi going to happen).
Sooner we get to September and this silly season ends the better.
This is a signing we have to get right. Weāve seen all too well what happens when you bring in a striker that doesnāt suit the system our manager plays.
With Duran, we are looking at potential not the finished, proven article. Talented, yes. But apparently thereās an attitude issue too. At the price quoted this is a very risky signing. IF it proves to be a good one, thereās a decent sell on profit to be made. But weāre obviously taking a big chance here should we sign him. Not going to lie, Iāve Never seen him play. Seems not many have.
Iām a Villa fan and tbh canāt wait to see him leave. Duran does have some great potential but your correct his attitude is the reason Emery wants rid
I think 32m with add ion will get it done
Letās hope he like your claret and blue shirt because he seem to not like ours
Part of the high cost is contract length, and another part is young age. Villa are asking top dollar though and he seems a prime candidate for more rather than less add ons.
It sounds to me that Duran is chomping at the bit. He’s been held back at Villa and they admit to the amount of potential he has. Yes only 20 and raw but you get them yhat young surely you can mould them to the way you want them to play.Plus he has experience around him.See what has happened in the past when we bought established “goalscorers”,they didn’t make it.
Completely agree, Spain has lots of them. Duran looks physically upto the task but he is completely unproven, if Steidten thinks he has the goods then lets see, with Alvarez and Kudus you could see their class at Ajax so they were less of a gamble, we were going to get Cole Palmer though and pay over Ā£30m who was also unproven at the time so happy to give the benefit of the doubt and with players that had scored in other leagues previously like Haller, Scamacca, Vlasic etc they didn’t do well so who knows, will get behind him and hope for the best if he does arrive.
Same here mate, I’ll welcome him and give him the benefit of the doubt mate it is a slight concern. If it were Ā£20-25m I doubt I’d be as cautious.
Gonzo, here’s a question for you! I’m sure no club is going to allow a Ā£50m asset to walk away in a year’s time on a free. So the choice is either a proven 29 year old for Ā£30-35m or a talented unproven 20 year old for for about the same amount? Personally, I think I’d bid for Toney and see if a transfer could be agreed to the mutual benefit of all parties. What would your preference be out of interest?
Still…half the price of hojland….