Let’s not take anything away from what was a solid win at the Toughsheet Community Stadium last night. But there was one player out there who genuinely made me, and plenty of others, question why he was even involved.
The player is Pablo, and his transfer to West Ham last January was shrouded in mystery, represented by the same agent as Nuno Espírito Santo, Jorge Mendes, an expensive transfer fee, and the fact Nuno formerly played with his dad, Pena, in Portugal.
One assumes there is a player in there, and it should not be forgotten that he’s still relatively young at 22 years old, yet his numbers already paint a bleak picture.
Pablo Felipe’s Numbers Paint A Bleak Picture
For a forward trying to establish himself, your overall goalscoring record is your CV. And Pablo Felipe’s CV is thin.
Across his senior career so far, he’s managed 34 goals in 162 appearances, a strike rate of 0.21 goals per game. And I’ve included his time with the Famalicao U-23 team where he scored 13 of those 34 goals. His goal ratio is not just below average, it’s miles off what modern forwards need to survive.
His underlying metrics don’t rescue him either. His expected goals numbers consistently sit in the bottom third of his league, and his shot conversion is poor, too many tame efforts, too few high-quality chances created by his own movement. He averages just 1.1 shots per match, which is nowhere near enough volume to threaten defences.
Creatively, it’s the same story. Only 8 assists in his senior career, and his key passes per 90 hover around 0.6, which is what you’d expect from a defensive midfielder, not an attacking player. His pressing numbers are low, his duels won are low, and his off-ball intelligence hasn’t developed.
Pablo works his socks off but hasn’t matched Taty’s goal scoring for West Ham
Are There Any Positives?
Ball retention, he actually keeps the ball fairly well. His turnover rate is lower than most forwards, meaning he doesn’t give it away cheaply.
Link-up play, his short passing accuracy is decent, usually around 85–88%, which is solid for an attacker.
Work rate, Pablo covers good ground. Not fast, but he runs. His distance-covered stats are respectable, even if his pressing efficiency is poor.
Aerial duels, weirdly, he wins a fair share of headers for someone who doesn’t dominate physically. It’s one of the few areas where he’s above average.
Then there is a strange statistic that boils down to either luck or maybe answers the question as to why Pablo gets picked!
West Ham’s Bizarre Pablo Win Record
West Ham’s points return has been nearly more than twice as good when the striker has played.
Looking just at league games, West Ham have registered 8 wins and 3 draws in 17 games, a 47% win rate. 27 points accumulated when Pablo plays.
Without him playing, though, only a total of nine points from eight games, and a 25% win rate.
However, right now after 22 games in all competitions, nobody wants to watch a striker politely compared to a bargain-bin Ian Dowie tribute act.
Pablo has divided opinion among fans, primarily as we love a trier, yet the Championship was hopefully a level where he could improve – let’s see!
As a West Ham Fan, we’ve always struggled to have a striker apart from arnautovic and Antonio. I think he is still very young and has a lot to experience however he needs ro start scoring. I hope for him to at least get more than 14 goals/assist this season. It’s only right to be honest especially for his transfer cost and considering we are now in second tier but all we can do is hope he has to show.
Under normal circumstances Pablo would struggle to get into a Sunday League Pub team. He just can not play football and his stats bear this out. His like a dog with a balloon. He can not control, pass, shoot, head or tackle. Just runs around.
Pablo is hopeless. He wouldn’t score goals in any league. He is not a natural goalscorer and never will be. He only gets a game because Nuno is mates with his dad.
The worse thing is we now have a squad of 28 players and only one other centre forward.
What did Dowie do a lot, even if he didn’t score ? Keep leaning on defenders, knocking holes in the defence for others to exploit. Plus when he plays we don’t tend to get so many of those runs from defence to attack by the opposition, because they have to get through him. Pablo is to my mind a damn fine central midfielder, he isn’t a forward at this level, but his work rate is massive. So play him further back and reap the benefits.
Pablo makes Nuno cringe at times especially last night (also the fans).
Should have brought in an across the front line (striker combined as a pacy right winger) to cover Bowen.
I agree we need much more than the odd assist! He was unlucky not to score last night with the first goal. But we need Piroe,taty and Bowen and Austbo up top !
Pablo contributes a lot to the team in hard work. He may be feeling the pressure of not scoring, I say let’s see what happens when he gets off the mark. Remember if he wasn’t there putting pressure on the keeper with that close range effort that was saved Bowen probably wouldn’t have had the chance to score last night.
I would love to know what his team mates think of him playing, particularly Bowen as captain. If they like playing with him thats good enough for me
I really struggle to see any positives with Pablo’s game.
I was hoping that dropping down a division, he might be more effective, but he still doesn’t look like he’s going to score goals at this level. Even though he was already offside, there was a great cross last night, where he only needed to nod it in, but instead chose to try and reach it with his foot and missed it altogether!
Maybe it could be a confidence issue and if and when he does score, it will open the floodgates, but I doubt it.
I do hope that I am proved wrong though.
So Nuno Espírito Santo has frequently used him to do the dirty defensive work, pressing from the front, tracking back, and clogging passing lanes. Having a forward who rarely gives the ball away under pressure allows midfielders and wingers like Jarrod Bowen to push up field.
What is he 22? I wouldn’t write him off too early.
You can’t easily dismiss the statistical quirk highlighted in the article that West Ham’s win rate and points accumulation practically double when he is on the pitch (roughly a 47% win rate with him versus 25% without).
Football is a team game, and yes a striker is judged on goals but sometimes a raw individual goal counts doesnt capture structural harmony. If the side consistently looks more balanced, harder to beat, and picks up significantly more points when he plays, his overall contribution goes far beyond what appears on a basic scoresheet. Last night against Bolton Pablo wasn’t good but I’m guessing this is a guy coming back from a calf injury who is low on confidence. I still feel if he gets a goal he’ll get a bag full but will Nuno stick by him. It’s catch 22. If he just comes on as a substitute occasionally he’s not going to be match fit and probably even less likely he’ll score or even have a good game.
No worries ,he will score us goals, just needs to get off the mark.
with those stats, we cant afford to leave him out, when fit play him.
I would like to see Ajala given a chance/minutes for Pablo,.
An Enigma for sure, take the Chelsea game gor example, West Ham looked great whilst Pablo was running his socks off, but when he was substituted for a defender we fell apart (possibly because tge defender was Kilman, who at least has found his level this season)
It’s a shame that great goal was disallowed, might have given the guy confidence, however his first touch is very very poor time and again.
Someone should be giving him extra training to get that right and if so, we might have a player, as well as a mascot