By Kris Gonzo | Senior West Ham Columnist (Follow on X)
Daniel Křetínský’s attempt to manoeuvre himself into control of West Ham without crossing the crucial 50% ownership threshold contains an intriguing risk.
He could theoretically finish the entire process owning fewer West Ham shares than when he started it.
Much has been made of Křetínský’s proposed sale of 2.2% of his West Ham shareholding to fellow Czech businessman Jakub Havrlant. The logic behind the move appears straightforward: reduce his current 27% holding to approximately 24.8%, then potentially acquire Vanessa Gold’s entire 25.1% stake and finish at roughly 49.9%.
That would seemingly give Křetínský effective control while avoiding the clause reportedly triggered by him personally exceeding 50%, which could oblige him to make an extremely expensive offer for David Sullivan’s 38.8%.
Very clever.
Except there may be a catch.
Křetínský’s 2.2% Is Also Up For Grabs
The huge amount of attention surrounding Amanda Staveley’s agreement with Vanessa Gold has focused on West Ham’s pre-emption rules.
Reuters confirmed that Gold cannot simply sell her 25.1% to Staveley’s consortium because existing West Ham shareholders must first be offered the opportunity to acquire those shares under the club’s existing arrangements.
But exactly the same problem applies to Křetínský. And when discussing the September 2nd pre-emption agreement last night, Claret & Hugh were told, “You’re missing a key point which might scupper Daniels plan”.
The Times specifically lists Havrlant’s proposed 2.2% holding as being subject to the pre-emption rights of existing shareholders.
Therefore Křetínský hasn’t simply moved 2.2% across to his old mate and carried on regardless.
He has effectively put those shares into a process which gives West Ham’s existing shareholders an opportunity to buy them instead.
David Sullivan, Vanessa Gold, Tripp Smith and the other qualifying shareholders potentially get first refusal before Havrlant can acquire them.
That creates an intriguing scenario.
David Sullivan is still the largest shareholder at West Ham
What Happens If Only Half The Plan Works?
Křetínský’s plan works beautifully if two things happen: he successfully disposes of the 2.2%, bringing himself below 25%, and he subsequently manages to acquire enough of Gold’s holding to reach his desired 49.9%.
But what happens if only the first part happens?
Suppose another West Ham shareholder exercises their rights and buys some or all of Křetínský’s 2.2%.
Křetínský has achieved the first objective and reduced himself to approximately 24.8%.
But he must still win the separate battle for Vanessa Gold’s shares.
And that is far from guaranteed.
Gold has already provisionally agreed to sell her 25.1% stake to Amanda Staveley’s consortium, with Reuters confirming that deal remains subject to West Ham’s pre-emption process.
If Křetínský ultimately fails to acquire Gold’s shares — or only succeeds in acquiring a smaller portion than anticipated — he could theoretically emerge from this boardroom chess match owning fewer West Ham shares than when he started it.
Instead of 49.9%, he could find himself sitting around 24.8%, having surrendered 2.2% of his existing holding without achieving the takeover manoeuvre which seemingly prompted the sale in the first place.
Vanessa Gold holds the keys to West Ham’s future
One Important Caveat
There is an important caveat.
The precise wording of West Ham’s private shareholder agreement is not publicly available, so it is impossible to state definitively whether Křetínský has some mechanism allowing him to halt his proposed disposal should the Gold deal unravel.
But publicly available information makes one thing very clear: Havrlant’s acquisition is itself subject to pre-emption.
Indeed, West Ham’s own official ownership page still lists Křetínský’s 1890s Holdings at 27%, rather than 24.8%.
So what has largely been presented as an ingenious Křetínský chess move is actually two separate transactions, both dependent upon processes involving West Ham’s other shareholders.
Křetínský may yet execute the plan perfectly and emerge with 49.9% of West Ham.
But he has also opened another door.
And if the other shareholders walk through it while his pursuit of the Gold stake falters, the Czech billionaire could conceivably finish this ownership battle with less of West Ham than he had when it started.
If anything should go wrong, we can look forward to a BBC Panorama expose in 2042 delving into the alleged wrongdoings of Mandy Staveley.
I hope that I get to see that one reach the light of day.
Sorry mate but you don’t really understand what you are writing. There is almost no situation where Kretinsky’s plans fail unless he decides not to proceed.
Sullivan won’t be allowed to bid as he is under investigation from the regulator.
Tripp-Smith has no ambitions to increase his holding plus he is firmly in the same camp as Kretinsky. if he did buy the net effect would be the same as Kretinsky’s proposed sale.
Gold could buy them and if she did that would again actually benefit Kretinsky and be to Gold’s detriment. He could still buy her original holding and then leave her with 2.2% she doesn’t want.
Who exactly is going to outbid him? There are no other shareholders in a position to buy them and as long as he matches the price agreed between Gold and Staveley it’s adios to her consortium. Will he match the price? Well he already knows it and wouldn’t be planning to sell 2.2% of his existing holding if he wasn’t!
Zero chance of Tripp or the other minority investors going toe to toe with DK and fecking up his plan.
I think there’s little chance of DS buying them as things stand but who knows. I didn’t expect him to attend matches so his EQ is clearly nil.
I would guess this plays out as DK plans but what will be interesting will be if Staveley then goes after Sullivan, Tripp, and the other minority investors shares which ultimately I don’t see working well with two financial powerhouses involved.
Myself and a number of your Claret & Hugh readers have said the same thing over the last few weeks.
Kretinsky had his chance with gold shares and slept. His all mouth so good luck to golds valuation and hope stavely gets control. Kretinsky could have put in his cash for players coming in and paid off debt like he said as his a 2nd largest holder of shares and could later retrieve the money spent back again. But seems not interested in west ham just greed for himself . Get him gone along with disarster nuno another huge mistake asp.
Yep that’s exactly how big business works mate.
Would you throw £50k into a flat you rent to increase its value?
If the answer is yes then you must be nuts.
The risk was never hidden. I wonder what price he’s put on the 2.2% thats something I don’t know but would like to! Thinking maybe a very high price to deter others which could also give him a cash injection of presumably his own cash hehe Looking forward to seeing the outcome
Although everything you say above is correct, I don’t really think anyone was missing anything. The situation regarding DK’s shares and the sale of his 2.2% having to go through the pre-emptive process has always been the case. The other existing shareholders have the first option to purchase them in line with their current % stake in the club along with the Gold shares as well. Then any shares not acquired in the first round are open to all existing shareholders in the 2nd round. The Gold shares have been touted around for a long time now and no one has even considered buying them, that was until the Sullivan situation occurred changing the ownership landscape as such. The reality surrounding all of this is quite straight forward.
First of all, David Sullivan isn’t going to buy any more shares because as things stand he is still being investigated. Legally he could try and purchase more shares, but if the investigation goes against him, then there is a big possibility that he could be forced to sell all of his shareholding in the club.
Secondly, Vannessa Gold wants her shares sold to help her other business, so selling through the pre-emptive rights process means she gets to sell all of her shares – and at a price she knows is much higher than was originally offered by DK previously. And it also guarantees her at least the same price that Staveley offered, or an even higher price if another shareholder wants to get into a bidding war. That was just clever business on her part, but she won’t be purchasing any more shares as it just doesn’t make sense to do so – she would also have to buy them at the same inflated price as the Staveley offer even if it was for the 2.2%. If she was interested in those shares it would be much easier and cheaper to keep 2.2% of her own shares.
And finally that brings me to DK, he has the opportunity and financial muscle behind him to outbid any of the other shareholders that are likely to even think about bidding for the Gold shares, so in essence if he bids for them then he will get them. The only thing that may go against him is if his 2.2% isn’t bid on during the pre-emptive process, then once open bidding starts on them, his “mate” might get out bid, unless he can be classed as his preferred bidder.
Staveley has been so quiet recently because she knows it’s very unlikely that any of the shares from Gold will come her way. She would be better off trying to pull off a deal with Sullivan as DK won’t want any of those shares until they are no longer Sullivans – as even if Sullivan sells half of his shares, once DK owns more than 50%, he will still be forced to buy any remaining Sullivans shares at a much higher price that was previously agreed.
This is something I laid out for you a while back, in yet another comment that never saw the light of day. As an ex-shareholder myself, some of this is so obvious – but hidden from public view – that commenting on it is always just speculation.
Hugh knew.
No drama here. He only ends up at 24% if he CHOOSES not to take up his pre-emptive rights on Gold’s shares, so no risk to him whatsoever.
No doubt all will be revealed at 12.01am, Wednesday- just after the window closes and surprise surprise the reason we have sold or released 16 + players in an already small and aged squad and spent best part of f all