We still have a decent chance to escape

By CandH blogger Allen Cummings

David Moyes begins his second tenure as manager of West Ham United, looking for our first home win in six attempts at the London Stadium.

The game against Bournemouth marks the start of the second half of our season, and Moyes, the players and the supporters will be hoping to begin 2020 with three valuable points.

So let’s look at the facts and figures from the path we leave behind and the road that lies ahead. At present we stand on 19 points from 19 games – made up of five wins, four draws and ten defeats.

A repeat of that haul will see us finish the season on a total of 38 points. Would that be enough in itself to see us to safety? Recent history suggests it would. In the last eight seasons no club finishing on 38 points has suffered relegation.

In the 2015-16 season Newcastle United came close, finishing on 37 points, but were still relegated along with Norwich (34 points) and Aston Villa (17 points). The last time we dropped out of the Premier League, the 2010-11 season, we finished rock bottom on 33 points – made up of just seven wins, 12 draws and 19 defeats.

So what do we need from the 19 games ahead? Well certainly another five wins, and four draws would be a minimum requirement. How likely is that? Well a look at the teams around us would suggest we certainly have a fighting chance.

David Moyes begins his second tenure as manager of West Ham United, looking for our first home win in six attempts at the London Stadium. The game against Bournemouth marks the start of the second half of our season, and Moyes, the players and the supporters will be hoping to begin 2020 with three valuable points.

So let’s look at the facts and figures from the path we leave behind and the road that lies ahead. At present we stand on 19 points from 19 games – made up of five wins, four draws and ten defeats. A repeat of that haul will see us finish the season on a total of 38 points.

Would that be enough in itself to see us to safety? Recent history suggests it would. In the last eight seasons no club finishing on 38 points has suffered relegation. In the 2015-16 season Newcastle United came close, finishing on 37 points, but were still relegated along with Norwich (34 points) and Aston Villa (17 points).

The last time we dropped out of the Premier League, the 2010-11 season, we finished rock bottom on 33 points – made up of just seven wins, 12 draws and 19 defeats.

So what do we need from the 19 games ahead? Well certainly another five wins, and four draws would be a minimum requirement. How likely is that? Well a look at the teams around us would suggest we certainly have a fighting chance.

Of the teams closest to us in terms of league positions, that’s from 13th placed Burnley down to bottom placed Norwich, six of the seven still have to come to the London Stadium. Starting with Bournemouth today. Only Norwich have already been visitors to east London – and of course we collected all three points from the Canaries.

Obviously nothing can be taken for granted. Who would have predicted we would be where we are today when we last faced the Cherries in September – and briefly enjoyed a position of third in the table. But the task ahead is very much in our own hands – and fate, or the fixture list – has given us a decent chance of success and survival.

Of the teams closest to us in terms of league positions, that’s from 13th placed Burnley down to bottom placed Norwich, six of the seven still have to come to the London Stadium. Starting with Bournemouth today. Only Norwich have already been visitors to east London – and of course we collected all three points from the Canaries.

Obviously nothing can be taken for granted. Who would have predicted we would be where we are today when we last faced the Cherries in September – and briefly enjoyed a position of third in the table.

But the task ahead is very much in our own hands – and fate, or the fixture list – has given us a decent chance of success and survival.