West Ham Promotion Watch: Beware The Sneaky Saints

West Ham United’s next two Championship matches could completely change the conversation surrounding Nuno Espírito Santo and his team’s promotion prospects. The Hammers currently sit third in the table with 16 points from nine matches, four behind leaders Swansea City and two adrift of Middlesbrough.

Following consecutive draws against Millwall and Queens Park Rangers, Nuno has received plenty of criticism for the way his team have approached matches. However, victories away at Lincoln City on Wednesday and Swansea on Saturday would put West Ham on 22 points from 11 games, a return of exactly two points per match.

That would represent a 92-point pace across a full Championship season and put the Hammers firmly on course to challenge for automatic promotion. Suddenly, the negative conversations surrounding Nuno’s tactics would become much quieter, although the next two fixtures are unlikely to be straightforward.

West Ham promotion watch: What the numbers tell us

West Ham have won four, drawn four and lost just once in their opening nine league fixtures.

That gives us a current average of 1.78 points per game, which would produce approximately 82 points if maintained throughout the 46-match campaign.

It’s certainly not a disastrous start, but I would suggest it falls below what should reasonably be expected from a squad containing so many players with Premier League, European and international experience.

The current projections also provide an interesting indication of how competitive the promotion race could become.

*Southampton have earned 17 points on the pitch, but their official total is 13 following a four-point deduction. Their projection uses their on-field points average, with the deduction subtracted once.

These figures are simply projections based on the current points-per-game averages, rather than predictions of where teams will finish. Nevertheless, they illustrate how much ground West Ham could potentially make up over the coming week.

Middlesbrough look like West Ham’s biggest promotion threat

Swansea deserve enormous credit for their start to the campaign. Six victories from nine matches have put them top of the Championship, and their latest 2-1 victory over Norwich City maintained that impressive momentum.

However, of the current top two, I actually consider Middlesbrough the bigger threat to West Ham’s automatic promotion ambitions.

Their 1-0 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers at the weekend was another important result, and their recruitment has certainly caught my attention.

In particular, striker Will Lankshear looks an astute signing. Middlesbrough secured him permanently from Tottenham during the summer, as Spurs confirmed in July.

Lankshear has already scored seven Championship goals this season, and with Tottenham experiencing their own difficulties in the Premier League, I suspect there are a few Spuds supporters wondering whether allowing him to leave permanently was such a good idea.

Middlesbrough have started strongly, appear to have recruited well and look capable of sustaining a serious promotion challenge.

Southampton’s league position is misleading

One club I am particularly concerned about is Southampton.

On the face of it, their position of 11th in the Championship might suggest they are some distance away from challenging West Ham. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Southampton started the campaign with a four-point deduction, meaning their official total of 13 points disguises the fact they have actually collected 17 from their opening nine matches.

Without that deduction, Southampton would be above West Ham on points.

Their 1-0 victory over Portsmouth at the weekend continued their encouraging start, and their goal difference of plus ten is another indication that they shouldn’t be underestimated.

Indeed, their on-field points average would equate to approximately 87 points over 46 games. Even after accounting for the four-point penalty, that still produces a projected final total of around 83.

For that reason, I am considerably more concerned about Southampton than their current league position might suggest. They could easily emerge as one of West Ham’s biggest rivals, whether that is for automatic promotion or the play-off positions.

Two games that could transform West Ham’s season

It’s tempting to go through almost any football season labelling fixtures as must-win or crucial. However, I genuinely believe there is a significant swing to be had from West Ham’s next two matches.

First comes Wednesday’s trip to Lincoln City, followed by Saturday’s visit to Swansea.

Win both and West Ham will have 22 points from 11 matches, averaging exactly two points per game. That’s the sort of return which puts a team in a very strong position to challenge for automatic promotion.

Furthermore, beating Swansea would mean taking three points directly from one of our main promotion rivals.

Suddenly, the criticism of Nuno’s approach against Millwall and QPR would be much easier to forgive. The conversation would change from concerns about tactics and dropped points to whether West Ham were beginning to establish themselves as genuine promotion favourites.

Of course, the opposite is also true.

Fail to beat Lincoln and fans will understandably start looking at the performances and results of our rivals with considerably less confidence.

I don’t believe automatic promotion should be considered a certainty, but given the strength of West Ham’s squad, it absolutely should be the expectation.

There is enough quality at this club to finish in the top two, and I don’t think that’s an unreasonable demand.

As previously discussed in our assessment of Nuno’s team selection, the manager has already demonstrated that his players are capable of producing much more convincing performances than those witnessed in the recent draws.

The promotion race is about to get interesting

The next few fixtures should tell us considerably more about West Ham’s promotion prospects.

After Lincoln and Swansea, we face Southampton at the London Stadium on 24 October, followed by West Bromwich Albion a week later and Cardiff City away on 4 November.

That is a sequence of matches containing direct promotion rivals and opportunities to establish some genuine momentum.

Meanwhile, Swansea face Millwall and Middlesbrough travel to Stoke on Tuesday evening, meaning the picture at the top could change before West Ham even kick a ball against Lincoln.

The Hammers have already demonstrated they can score goals, with 23 in nine Championship matches. The attacking quality is clearly there, but four draws from nine games explain why we currently find ourselves looking up at Swansea and Middlesbrough.

For me, the next two matches are a real opportunity for Nuno Espírito Santo to silence his critics.

Six points would make the table look considerably healthier and put West Ham on the sort of points-per-game average expected of an automatic promotion contender.

Anything significantly less, and the questions surrounding our ability to secure a top-two finish will only become louder.