By Kris Gonzo | Senior West Ham Columnist (Follow on X)
There are statistics which require interpretation and others which tell you almost everything you need to know. West Ham’s 2-2 draw at Millwall provided both.
The Hammers somehow had 66% possession during a dreadful first half yet created just 0.11 xG. Millwall, with barely a third of the ball, produced a staggering 2.90 xG before the break.
Then everything changed. West Ham produced 2.22 xG in the second half as Nuno Espírito Santo’s substitutions transformed a contest in which, as reflected in our player ratings from The Den, the Hammers had looked completely overwhelmed.
Kante and Pablo changed the game for West Ham
The Good – Kanté changes everything
Mohamadou Kanté’s red card was deserved and incredibly frustrating, but it shouldn’t disguise just how influential he was. The substitute produced three shots and 0.78 xG after coming on at half-time.
He scored with a superb low strike to make it 2-1 and might easily have scored another when following up Jarrod Bowen’s effort. Kanté brought exactly what West Ham had been missing: aggression, energy and a willingness to compete physically.
Divine Mukasa deserves huge credit too. The youngster won seven of his ten defensive duels and seven of 12 offensive duels. At a time when experienced teammates appeared overwhelmed by the occasion, Mukasa was prepared to scrap.
I thought taking him off was strange at the time, although it’s difficult to argue with Nuno’s changes given what followed. Pablo Felipe also deserves a special mention after giving Millwall’s defenders a physical battle, forcing a good save with a header and contributing to Kanté’s goal with his hold-up play.
That impact continued the improvement we saw after Pablo finally scored his first West Ham goal against Fulham.
| Millwall Stat Attack | Number |
|---|---|
| WHU 1st-half xG | 0.11 |
| WHU 2nd-half xG | 2.22 |
| Kanté xG | 0.78 |
| Mukasa def. duels | 7/10 |
| Mavropanos passes | 40/49 |
| Piroe shots | 0 |
The Bad – a goal papers over Mavropanos display
Konstantinos Mavropanos’ passionate celebration after heading home the equaliser was fantastic, and it was an enormously important goal. But it shouldn’t disguise what had happened beforehand.
Mavropanos completed only 40 of 49 passes, with just 14 of his 22 forward passes finding a teammate. He repeatedly surrendered possession and, more worryingly, was bullied at times by Lyndon Dykes.
The goal rescued both West Ham and, to some extent, Mavropanos’ afternoon. My immediate post-match assessment of Dinos was much the same: the equaliser rescued what had been heading towards a very low rating.
Joël Piroe’s numbers were even harder to defend. Yes, West Ham were dreadful at getting the ball anywhere near their striker, but Piroe still finished his 48 minutes with zero shots, zero progressive passes and zero passes into the final third.
He contested just one duel and lost it. When a game isn’t going your way, sometimes you have to forget about pretty football and graft. Piroe simply didn’t impose himself on the contest.
The Ugly – 66% possession and absolutely battered
This is the statistic I can’t get away from. West Ham had 66% of the first-half possession and Millwall had 34%, yet the Lions’ xG was 2.90 compared with West Ham’s pathetic 0.11.
That’s an extraordinary disparity and demonstrates perfectly why possession statistics can be completely meaningless without context. It also explains why I’ve wondered whether Millwall have provided the rest of the Championship with a blueprint for how to unsettle West Ham.
The second half also shows why Nuno deserves credit. I don’t blame him for starting with the attacking players who had just torn Wrexham apart 6-0. What manager wouldn’t?
What he couldn’t possibly have anticipated was how many West Ham players would crumble under the intensity of the derby. Nuno recognised what was happening, introduced Pablo and Kanté at half-time and added the physicality his team desperately needed.
The result was dramatic: West Ham went from 0.11 xG before the break to 2.22 afterwards.
I’ve had plenty of reasons to be annoyed with Nuno since he arrived at West Ham. This wasn’t one of them. His players let him down initially – and his changes dragged them back into the game.
Piroe was not alone in the first half. None of our front four/five had the ball played anywhere near them for 45 minutes. The ball just did not get that far forward.
Piroe is suffering from the similar criticisms of Haller, Scamacca, Fullkrug et al. If the team played the way they did against Wrexham then everyone would have had a wonderful day and enjoyable game.
Trouble is that the defending half played amongst themselves and eventually gave the ball away. Time after time. The attacking half were left high and dry.
Boot it like Beckham.
COYI
Nuno needs to be more versatile and treat each game individually this was always going to be blood and guts.
Frailty of defence caused relegation and still occurs at times.
Mavro needs somebody he can rely on as a partner not only physically but also verbally.
Morato was bought as a centre back not left back he’s to slow.
Kante appears to excel when starting from bench, why?
Golambeckis is player who can provided long throw ins and should be used more.
Hermansen can at times be quick with long throw outs and needs to get it down wing more often.
Distribution whilst opposition still lingering round penalty area after break down of attack.G
As far back as last season NES never had a plan B and plenty of us were groaning in dismay at seeing him resort to 5 at the back, parking the bus and losing countless points from winning positions.
Now as you say he seems to have a plan B, a 2nd formation. In the 2nd half he effectively played 3-4-3 and it worked. In the cup he started with 4 midfielders, so possibly he was trying the idea out, as not fussed about the cup.
We have a strong midfield, so that is already a sound basis for such a formation.
As mentioned, other teams will sometimes (but not always) be able to counter the starting 4-2-4 (4-4-2 if you prefer) playing direct, physical football putting pressure on Engels & Musaka, going down the wings just as Millwall did. So have always needed another setup which suits the team, strengthens the team defensively but is also attacking. As shown against Millwall, that is the case. Other times, 4-2-4 will work, as with Wrexham.
With Pablo on, just behind the forward line it could be a diamond shaped midfield, but too busy watching to know. Either way midfield was Orford (base), Kante (box to box), Engels (?) & Pablo at 10.
Also, added bonus, if do switch to 3 at the back, Golambeckis is an ideal sweeper in such a system as he reads the game so well. The more minutes he gets to play this season, with his obvious qualities, the better for WHU and the more millions can save in recruitment.
Anyway, future will show if this is NES’ intention and whether he uses it when his attacking 4-2-4 is not working out. Maybe?
Engles had a poor game too.
Lightweight and quite slow,unlike Masaka
Both pundits on premier sports named Pablo and kante as the subs that should come on.
so probably did most west ham supporters. I wouldn’t go overboard with nuno because of changes that were obvious to everyone. The surprise is he actually made them.