Nuno Silences Critics As West Ham Promotion Numbers Take Off

West Ham United’s projected Championship points total has jumped from 82 to 92 in less than a week, following two victories that have transformed the club’s promotion outlook. Nuno Espírito Santo’s team have climbed into second place, just one point behind Swansea City, having trailed the Welsh club by seven points only four days earlier.

The turnaround follows a 6-0 victory at Lincoln City and Saturday’s hugely significant 1-0 win away to Swansea. West Ham now have 22 points from 11 matches, putting them on course for 92 points over a full Championship season if their current average is maintained.

It’s quite a transformation, and one that I suggested was possible in last week’s Promotion Watch. At the time, I believed these two fixtures could completely change the conversation surrounding Nuno. That’s exactly what’s happened.

West Ham’s Promotion Numbers Have Changed Dramatically

The most striking statistic is the improvement in West Ham’s projected final points total.

Before the Lincoln game, the Hammers had collected 16 points from nine matches, averaging 1.78 points per game. Across a 46-match Championship season, that equated to approximately 82 points.

Two victories later, that average has risen to exactly two points per game, giving us a projected total of 92.

That’s a ten-point improvement in our season-long projection in the space of just four days.

*Southampton have earned 21 points on the pitch, but their official total is 17 following a four-point deduction. Their projection accounts for that deduction once.

These are points-per-game projections rather than predictions. There are still 35 Championship matches remaining, and plenty can change between now and May.

Nevertheless, the figures illustrate just how quickly the promotion picture can change.

Nuno Has Silenced His Critics Rather Than Answered Them

I wouldn’t necessarily suggest Nuno has answered all his critics. I think he’s silenced them for a bit, which is slightly different.

Before the Lincoln game, there were genuine concerns about West Ham’s performances and the tendency to start matches slowly. I certainly had reservations, even after the 6-0 victory against Lincoln, given that we were playing against nine men for most of the match.

However, there are three significant positives to take from the last week.

Firstly, we’ve won consecutive away matches. That’s no small achievement in the Championship, regardless of the opposition.

Secondly, we’ve kept back-to-back clean sheets. Defensive solidity has been something West Ham have been searching for, and Saturday’s performance against Swansea was particularly encouraging.

As I discussed in my assessment of Joël Veltman’s defensive contribution, there are signs that West Ham are beginning to look considerably more secure at the back.

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, our position in the Championship table looks a lot healthier.

We’re second rather than first, but we’ve just beaten the team directly above us. That’s a pretty good position to be in.

Middlesbrough And Southampton Remain The Main Threats

Saturday’s results also worked in West Ham’s favour elsewhere.

Middlesbrough were held to a 2-2 draw by Cardiff City, while Southampton failed to score in their goalless draw against Bolton Wanderers. Birmingham, meanwhile, continued their impressive form with a 3-0 victory over Queens Park Rangers.

The results, confirmed in the EFL’s official Championship round-up, have left West Ham second on goal difference, with Middlesbrough level on 22 points.

Little has changed in my thinking regarding the main promotion challengers.

I still consider Middlesbrough and Southampton serious contenders, despite both dropping points at the weekend.

However, if I’m completely honest, no team particularly worries me in this division.

West Ham can sometimes be their own worst enemies. If we fail to secure automatic promotion, I suspect it will have more to do with what we haven’t done than anything particularly extraordinary achieved by our competitors.

Given the quality and experience within Nuno’s squad, I believe we should be capable of finishing in the top two.

West Ham Have A Chance To Damage Southampton’s Promotion Hopes

Next up is Southampton at the London Stadium on Saturday, and it’s another important opportunity.

As I explained in an earlier Promotion Watch article, Southampton’s league position doesn’t tell the whole story because of their four-point deduction.

They have actually earned 21 points from their opening 11 matches, which would put them right amongst the leading promotion contenders without that penalty.

However, West Ham now have an opportunity to put further distance between ourselves and the Saints.

A victory would take us to 25 points and leave Southampton eight points behind us in the official standings.

That’s a decent gap, even at this relatively early stage of the campaign.

And after the defensive improvement we’ve witnessed over the past week, there’s no reason why West Ham shouldn’t approach Saturday’s match with confidence.

Nuno has delivered the two victories I felt were so important, and in doing so has changed the entire conversation surrounding his team.

The challenge now is to make sure this isn’t simply a good week, but the beginning of sustained winning form.