We’re not going down – Swansea are!


Ok with the anxieties, paranoia and sheer fear reaching epidemic proportions let’s all try to calm it a bit and look at the realities of our position.

Taking a very short term view and based on bookies likely odds, the gap between ourselves and Hull City is set to narrow to three points tomorrow but the key club to be looking at is Swansea if we are determined to think in terms of a real relegation struggle.

And to be perfectly honest it’s tricky to see where the next point will be coming from for the Welsh club based on a run in which looks like this:

Spurs (h), West Ham (a), Watford (a), Stoke (h), Manchester United (a), Everton (h), Sunderland (a) and WBA (h).

That’s a tough programme of  games for an out of form team who have taken four points from the last 15 and whilst our current results are  even worse I simply cannot see us being beaten by them on Saturday or Sunderland the week after.

Their goal difference is -27 against our -13 and thus I feel more than confident that  we will finish in front of them and probably Hull – whose away form is pretty horrible – having to travel to Manchester City ,Southampton, Stoke Southampton and revitalised Palace.

It’s quite impossible to think that we are not going to pick up anymore points this season and my worst case scenario is another six taking us to 39

In their absolute  wildest dreams I don’t see the Swans collecting more than eight (and more likely five or six) which would see us survive reasonably comfortably.

We are all Hammers and have been here many times before so come on heads up and let’s give it large for the lads.


Share this article

Hugh Southon is a lifelong Iron and the founding editor of ClaretandHugh. He is a national newspaper journalist of many years experience and was Bobby Moore's 'ghost' writer during the great man's lifetime. He describes ClaretandHugh as "the Hammers daily newspaper!"

Follow on Twitter @hughsouthon


  • Thiucgshaun says:

    Palace have got to play Southampton, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, Man city and Man it’s. They are just as likely to go down than Swansea irrespective of their win at Chelsea in my view.

  • Hammer64 says:

    Good stats Hugh to brighten a gloomy Monday. After so many years of relegation battles I would refine the stats a bit if I could be bothered. I find you need to look not just at whether you are playing ‘top’ teams/’poor’ teams. Look also for those mid table sides who are ‘on the beach’-eg possibly Saints. Also look for sides ‘on a run’ even if they are currently at the bottom. Who would have backed us to beat Man U away, Bolton away (I think) Everton among others I can’t remember back in 2007. Top sides who have played a lot of games can falter in April/May if you catch them after a hard European game in midweek. How does this change things for us? Not a clue..But will blame you if we go down now!

  • kcockayne says:

    This is tempting fate in a really big way, Hugh. I just hope that you are right & that we beat Swansea; because, if we don’t we are really in the sh*t. True, Swansea have a very difficult fixture list but it would be typical West Ham if they beat us. They did last year & that was one of our most successful league campaigns ever ! Just as it is difficult to see where their next point is going to come from (& hopefully not from West Ham), it is also difficult to see where we are going to get 2 wins from (given our current form). I don’t know what will happen, but if we lose at Arsenal there will be huge pressure on the team to beat Swansea – & I don’t think that they handle this sort of pressure very well. I can easily see us losing – although I hope with all my heart that we don’t.

  • Michael Miller says:

    Looking on Oddschecker – Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Hull are all odds-on for Relegation – Swansea is 7/4 and West Ham are at 20/1 or 25/1 – I must admit these odds do seem a little strange but the Bookies very rarely get it wrong – apart from the last General Election, the Brexit Referendum and the Trump Election……. oh, hold on a minute let’s think this through!

  • Wembley1980 says:

    I don’t know why they bother to play the games! When we can simply guess the outcome! I’m quite sure there’s a group of Hull Swansea and Palace fans sitting somewhere saying I can’t see West Ham getting any points from their games, usually one relegated side falls like a stone from March onwards!!

  • Stan The Man says:

    For goodness sake Wembley its only Hughs thoughts and open to debate.Why the need for all the sarcasm in the first paragraph.Is Hugh not allowed to put out there what he thinks could happen.
    Crikey whats wrong with some of you.

  • Wembley1980 says:

    Sorry Stan and Hugh…but I love sarcasm!

  • Stratford E20 says:

    I was hoping that the days of looking down the league in fear of relegation were behind us. If you play a lower team in the FA cup you know that team will put in a battling display. Why is it that most West Ham teams just don’t know how to do that? I hate the West Ham way.

Comments are closed.